A number of airlines have been asking for permission to delay the start of flights to China from the United States.  The Dallas Morning News reported that American Airlines now has filed for such permission on their Chicago-Beijing route authority. Both US Airways and United Airlines have also asked for the same thing on their recent route authorities.

US Airways lacks the aircraft type for making the trip from Philadelphia and United Airlines, who does have the equipment, simply doesn’t want to fly to their new destination in the current economic climate.  These kind of routes cost a tremendous amount of money to operate and without some certainty that they’ll make money, the risk doesn’t seem worth it right now.  To the winners of these authorities at least.

The airline industry has played the “save us” card on these routes by making the argument that just because their economic situation changed, they should be given a second or third chance to find a more convenient time to operate these routes.  Yes, the entire industry has experienced a lot of challenges and, yes, the cost of fuel is certainly the biggest. 

However, we are not without other airlines who I suspect would be happy to operate these routes.  Why wait for an airline to decide its ready to fly them when we can identify other airlines that are willing to fly them right now.  I suspect that both Delta and Continental Airlines would give serious consideration to even removing equipment from a different route in order to be able to fly these routes.  Northwest, who already operates a large number of Asian routes, might well be tickled to death to offer more service.

It is time to go back to a “use it or lose it” model.  Giving airlines 2nd and 3rd chances only removes the incentive to figure out how to operate in today’s climate.  An airline should have no more than 12 months to operate a route authority from the date it is awarded.  If it cannot or will not, then its time to seek other “bids” for these routes.   When you deny such routes to Delta (who asked for ATL-Beijing) and give the to American Airlines (who wanted DFW-Beijing but ultimately asked for and got Chicago-Beijing) who then asks to defer their operation, you are putting Delta at a competitive disadvantage and American Airlines gains. 

Let the airlines who can and will operate these routes, have the routes.  Don’t permit large legacy airlines operating in fear the opportunity to “sit” on the routes and prevent that economic growth to someone else. 

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India’s Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL) has announced plans to build yet another 70 to 90 seat Indian regional jet.  While we don’t have details on its configuration yet, it will likely be powered by a version of the Pratt & Whitney GTF engine (Geared Turbo Fan) and with that seating configuration, I expect a 2 x 2 seating configuration.

But does the world need yet another regional jet in that configuration?  Probably not.  Right now Embraer and Bombardier are both offering highly efficient regional jets in that seating configuration and Embraer’s family ranges from 70 to 110 seats and offers cross cockpit compatibility.  Bombardier of Canada has the CRJ700/900 at present and is close to flying its prototype CRJ1000.  Russia’s Sukhoi is hard at work producing their Sukhoi Super Jet, another regional jet in yet the same configuration as all the others.  China’s AVIC I is producing the ARJ21-900, a 5 across regional jet for China’s growing routes.  If you thought I was done, I’m not.  Japan’s Mitsubishi is also producing a very similar regional jet using the new Pratt & Whitney GTF.

While both Bombardier and Embraer have enormous backlogs for their aircraft, they also have a very credible track record in building aircraft.  They also have families of aircraft that allow airlines to right size their fleets to routes while at the same time keeping maintenance costs reasonable.  I question whether Mitsubishi, AVIC I or Sukhoi can offer airlines the same capability for some time to come.  I also question whether these airplanes offer the right economics for many airlines.

A similar turbo prop aircraft can offer similar seating, comfort and travel times for less than half the operating cost on stage length of 400 nm or less.  I continue to believe that there will be a shift to aircraft that offer both the operating economies and capital costs that make such routes go from marginal to profitable.  Indeed, many mainline legacy airlines have contracts with pilots that are far less restrictive when it comes to seating capacities on such aircraft.  For instance, American Airlines has contracts in place that disallow American Eagle (and other commuter airlines serving American Airlines) from flying these new, higher capacity jets.

Continental Airlines showed us the way to a new profitability when they introduced the Bombardier / De Haviland Q400 on routes in the northeast.  Horizon Airlines confirmed their future by choosing to eliminate their CRJ aircraft and older Dash 8-200 aircraft and now they are being replaced with new, modern Q400 airplanes. 

The world doesn’t need another new regional jet no matter who built it.  It needs high capacity turbo-props and 110 to 140 seat mainline aircraft.

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Virgin Atlantic reported a $50million (USD) increase in profits for their just completed financial year.  Given the financial circumstances for all airlines, it impresses me to no end that they have managed to not only make a profit but increase it against rising fuel costs.  To me, this points to service being the prime key to financial success.  Say what you want about Virgin Atlantic (and many people do), they do have a well deserved reputation for being a good, consistent service product.  Look at any airline that doesn’t have this key element and you’ll find them fighting for their lives.

Airlines such as VA, Southwest Airlines, Singapore Airlines (as well as many others) are concentrating on their service and meeting the expectations of customers and it shows.

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I saw this video  from Delta Airlines on the RunwayGirl Blog this morning.  This has to be one of the best safety demo videos I’ve ever seen.  Notice the visual cues shown for each part of the video.  The perspectives shown are from a passenger’s view and seem to make the location, purpose or use of various safety items a lot easier to identify.

And the cute flight attendant doesn’t hurt. 

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V Australia, a new subsidiary international airline of Virgin Blue is due to start new routes from Sydney to Los Angeles in December of 2008. They will be using new build Boeing 777-300ER aircraft configured in an economy, premium economy and business class setup. Many question the viability of successfully flying that route against the likes of QANTAS, Air New Zealand and United Airlines but I have a feeling these guys are approaching this route with more right sized equipment.

QANTAS and United Airlines both use 747-400 aircraft that typically have 343 and 374 seats respectively. V Australia’s 777-300 aircraft will have about 300 seats in their mix. However, V Australia will fly the most fuel efficient aircraft in its class and offer a brand new cabin whereas the QANTAS and United aircraft are older, less fuel efficient. In addition, with the coming fracturing of the US-Australia market, the 777 and 787 will fly those routes with lower seat costs and higher load factors than the 747 can offer.

QANTAS will be placing the A380 on that same route in the near future and while its seat costs will match the 777, the real question is whether or not they can fill the aircraft. The QANTAS A380 has 450 seats to fill every flight. The V Australia only has to fill 300. Allowing for similar departures and seat demands, the 777 makes money a lot earlier in the game.

Convetional wisdom is against V Australia and the 777. I remember that the only airline to participate in the design of the 777 and not buy it was QANTAS. There is a reason why the 777-300ER and 777-200ER have the range and efficiency that they have today. It was designed for those US-Australia routes. If V Australia keeps a good schedule and are able to manage their fuel costs well, they’ll likely succeed. Those routes could use a more economy minded competitor.

Here is the new V Australia 777 on the Microvolt / Paine Field website.

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The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel (newspaper of my birthplace), has this report on Midwest Airlines being late in paying over $1million in gate fees.  Midwest is on my death watch list and this news doesn’t improve their standing at all.  The story mentions that they are contemplating bankruptcy and I should mention that because of changes in the US bankruptcy law, bankruptcy isn’t an easy choice to make anymore.  Those changes in the law are, in part, what drove both Northwest Airlines and Delta Airlines to file bankruptcy in September 2005 on the same day.

Updates to the bankruptcy code now make it more difficult for an airline to file bankruptcy, continue flying and weather debt and fare wars.   Until October of 2005, most airlines used chapter 11 bankruptcy to essentially buy time when competitive pressures put them at a severe disadvantage.   However, Midwest has likely been weighing the chances of obtaining DIP financing (Debtor in Possession) and given their high labor costs, vastly reduced network and fleet, most would not view this as a healthy choice for investment.  In addition to high labor costs, the airline is headquartered and based in Milwaukee, a city known for strong union influence. 

Northwest’s 47% stake in Midwest also makes the airline an unattractive target for a merger to other airlines.  It is possible that Northwest will be ordered to divest itself of its holdings as a condition of approving its merger with Delta but it is not in their interest to do so one day earlier than mandated.  By holding onto Midwest, they make Milwaukee a kind of “fortress airport” that rebuffs other airlines attempts to enter the market such as Airtran.

If Midwest were to go into bankruptcy, it would be very difficult for them to make a case for proceeding alone.  They would have to look for a buyer and while Airtran could be interested, they have already begun to establish Milwaukee as a focus city and other than some assets (namely the B717 aircraft), I’m not sure what else they have to gain by buying Midwest now. 

 To survive, Midwest Airlines would have to enter into Chapter 11, break its labor agreements and obtain enough financing to purchase new (to them) long range aircraft that would support its original network all the while fighting off Northwest, Airtran and any other airline that smells blood.  That’s a tall order for any management team in this industry.

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It would be easy to see my two previous posts as anti-union but, in fact, I’m really just anti-stupid and anti-selfish. The primary issue I have with most airline unions is that they have leadership that stands for election on the basis of “getting more” no matter what the present airline industry climate is. The best strategy, presently, for that leadership to remain in power is to promise and fight for short term gains.

I firmly believe that both airline management and airline unions would be far better served by contracts that span a far longer term (7 to 10 years). These contracts would fall into term periods that would most likely contain both up and down cycles in the business. Management is better served by having long term, predictable costs to plan for and union leadership would be able to make a better argument for the well being of their membership in that each party recognizes that the long term success of the business supports the long term financial security of the employees.

Airlines suffer such exaggerated cycles because it is so difficult to diversify an airline company with other counter-cyclical businesses. The business strengths of an airline do not necessarily carry over to other industries. However, it is possible for an airline to perform a kind of business diversification for itself by diversifying its route and customer structure. Several airlines such as Delta, Continental and Northwest have recognized that by increasing the percentage of their business (and revenue) that derives from international travel tends to balance against their domestic business. Accordingly, they’ve worked hard to adding new, fuel efficient aircraft and flying new long haul routes to mitigate against domestic conditions that rarely align with the rest of the world.

This means the business model is changing and that requires a certain cooperation from airline employees. It means that pilots may have to fly longer trips but that can be balanced by requiring fewer trips over a certain period. It means that airlines likely need to measure this “balance” for their employees over a 90 day period instead of a traditional 30 day period. But that can benefit an airline employee as well. Having a route schedule planned for 90 days means that employee can make better personal decisions about their lives and how to accommodate their work.

Many of the work rules in place at large legacy airlines derive from the 1950’s and airline travel in the 1950’s was vastly different. Airline travel in the 1990’s is vastly different now too. Wiping the slate clean and negotiating a contract that provides for flexibility (on both sides), economic security (for both sides) and which addresses both the existing business model as well as the evolving one would be of huge benefit to both parties.

Unions mistake the need for increased productivity per dollar spent as a call to eliminate jobs in this industry. It isn’t. Increased productivity means being able to use a mechanic to work a variety of aircraft or being able to use a pilot for a variety of routes. It means re-arranging the job functions and duty times to provide for financial growth, not to simply eliminate jobs.

Many legacy airlines have let their employees down in one area in particular. Leadership. An airline is best served by a CEO who is, first and foremost, a leader. That CEO should no doubt be served by an executive team who excels at management but a leader “leads” all the employee groups with some common goal and with some harmony. In fact, many legacy airline unions often call for more “leadership” on behalf of their employees and I believe it is no hollow wish.

Find a successful airline, today or 30 years ago, and you’ll most often find an airline being run by a leader. American Airlines employees used to refer to former AA CEO Bob Crandall as a Son of a Bitch but they also acknowledged that he was *their* Son of a Bitch. Former Continental CEO, Gordon Bethune, did not architect Continental’s rise from the ashes of bankruptcy through financial management alone, he did it by working very hard at re-aligning the goals and interests of his employees with the airline’s long term success. He worked to make things both flexibile and financially rewarding.

It comes as no surprise that many United employees are badly demoralized and disillusioned with their leadership. That executive team has found ways to reward itself during bankruptcy, after bankruptcy and in spite of poor financial performance while tirelessly grinding away at the financial security of their own front line employees. Shareholders would be wise to structure financial incentive packages that only reward and retain airline executives who deliver financial and service performance.

The Continental executive team has proven at least 3 times in the past 15 years that it can turn a profit while treating their employees humanely and their customers with great service. The same is true of Southwest Airlines (who I note does have some of the longest term union agreements in the industry.)

If an airline executive doesn’t wish to remain a CEO if he doesn’t get millions in financial incentives each year whether the airline performs good or bad, then he (or she) really isn’t the best choice to lead the airline. Airlines are a business whose success can only be measured over a fairly long duration of years. Indeed, if you look at the financial results of legacy airlines just this year, there is no argument for ever investing in the business.

The airline employee is the front line service delivery mechanism for an airline. It isn’t the plane, it’s the people staffing the airline that provide that discriminator for choosing one airline over another. No airline in the US can afford to discriminate on price alone anymore. Southwest, a low cost leader, recognized that a few years ago and now has begun offering a more differentiated service product that is more attractive to the business traveler. It is critically important for airline management to get over itself with this idea that airline employees are commodity. They aren’t. They are the prime service provider for customers and customers really do notice and differentiate on that experience more than anything other discriminator (aircraft choice, etc.)

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The Today In The Sky Blog has this report today.  Northwest Airlines unions apparently took exception to management directly asking workers what kind of work environment they would prefer in the upcoming Delta / Northwest merger.

The ability of unions to shoot themselves in the foot in this industry boggles the mind.  This union reaction clearly spells stormy weather for Delta in the post-merger organization too.  Between this story and my last post, it becomes clear that union leadership at Northwest is aligned with no one, including their membership, other than themselves and maintaining their current power.  That is not the purpose of a union now or in the past. 

Reactions like this only serve to set up a battle line between the union and the airline and today’s airlines cannot afford such conflict if they are to concentrate on succeeding.  It is, first and foremost, in the interests of the union for the airline to make a profit for when they do, they better further their argument for better pay and work conditions.  It isn’t in the airlines best interest to simply cave into craven demands underlined with childish behavior.

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The Fort Worth Star Telegram blog, Sky Talk, reports that the union staff of the Allied Pilots Association will be doing informational picketing of their offices today.  The union, representing the support staff of the pilots and managers of the APA, says they have been working without a contract for over 400 days now.

 Update (10:25am CDT):  The Dallas Morning News now carries this story on its blog.

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United just announced a new Buy on Board food program for both their domestic and international flights.  You can read all about it here.

The basic summary is that snacks will be eliminated on domestic flights in favor of selling Buy on Board food in economy.  In domestic business class, beverages remain complimentary but now they will charge for food.  In addition, meal service on international coach service will, on many trans-atlantic flights, be reduced to Buy on Board as well.  Best of all, Buy on Board prices will be going up too.

What’s more, flight attendant staffing will be reduced to FAA minimums on such flights. 

So, United Airlines is reducing service in business class (coach already gets FAA minimums), reducing or eliminating more food service and charging more for their Buy on Board product while having fewer fight attendants available to sell the over-priced product.  This stunning and bold new move has earned United 1st place on my death watch because any airline stupid enough to do such things to their service product and particularly to their business class customer deserves to be out of business by Christmas. 

I’d say this was too painful to watch but it isn’t.  I’m going out to buy popcorn for this one.

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The Dallas Morning News Airline Biz Blog has This Story today.  I’m certain there are a number of reasons why airline traffic will be down for labor day but I’m equally certain that airlines are starting to feel the effects of far higher prices when it comes to travel demands. 

If this is true, LCC carriers such as Southwest and Airtran are probably grearing up to add even more capacity in existing and new markets.  These carriers can offer low prices on a sustained basis in addition to a basic service level that doesn’t quite show contempt for the consumer.  Legacy airlines such as American Airlines, United and DeltaNorthwest has cut service, introduced a number of new fees and raised fares considerably so far this year.  There isn’t nearly as compelling a case for travel on a legacy carrier as there once was. 

In fact, I’m  not sure what the argument is for traveling on a legacy carrier unless you seek a business class accomodation (available on Airtran, however) or a highly convenient direct flight.  Even the basic frequent flier no longer enjoys many of the privileges accorded to him or her in the past.  Fees for redeeming frequent flier miles are now designed to “buy” the ticket and the seats available for frequent flier redeemers is more reduced than ever before. 

At this point, a traveler has about the same or better experience on one of the low cost carriers, sometimes enjoys *better* amenities (Hello Jet Blue, Airtran and Frontier) on newer airplanes all for a fare that is, at the least, competitive with any legacy carrier. 

Many airlines have already begun their capacity reductions and they probably total about 5% in their markets.  So, we have a 5% reduction in travel demand matching a 5% reduction capacity which means there is about the same amount of people (per seat) chasing a low fare as before.   That means that air fares won’t go up anymore and some airlines will likely begin to look at attracting customers by reducing or eliminating these new fees going into the fall/winter season.  My prediction is that one or more legacy carriers will eliminate or reduce the first checked bag fee for travel sometime in November and December.

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United Airlines, an airline that has offered spotty-at-best service for more than 10 years, seems to have the 9 lives of a cat to most people.  Unfortunately, of all the legacy airlines, it is the one that should have melted away some time ago.   It emerged from bankruptcy in 2006 after spending 3 years and over $300 million reorganizaing itself to operate in a world with $50 / barrel oil without a realistic plan to deal with contingencies.

The problem is, oil was already at $60 / barrel when it started fresh.  Since 2006, United has been the one airline that always manages to arrive to the party in rumpled clothes and only a $5 bill to pay the door charge.   Those rumpled clothes are an aging fleet (although all of the truly old Boeing 737s are now being withdrawn from service to cut capacity) of aircraft that do not match the interior quality or service level of most of its competitors. 

The management team, most importantly CEO Glenn Tilton, has spent more than 2 years maneuvering to merge this airline with another and, yet, has been rebuffed by all potential candidates such as Continental, Delta and US Airways.  Indeed, they took a particularly condescending attitude towards US Airways’ offer to explore mergers when Glenn Tilton implied that he and his team would remain in place and “mentor” the US Airways management team including Doug Parker. 

Say what you will about US Airways but it isn’t the company we knew in the 90’s or even 3 years ago.  Doug Parker and team are really America West and they’ve been better at executing to plan than virtually any other management team at a legacy airline.  If anything, Mr. Tilton would be well served by Mr. Parker’s mentorship. 

Now the marriage dance in airline mergers is essentially over.  Delta and Northwest are walking down the aisle, Continental has chosen to stand alone (wisely in my opinion) and American Airlines has decided to pursue trans-atlantic partnerships with British Airways and Iberia Airlines.  There is no one else left for United to pursue a merger of equals and they lack the cash and operating plan to purchase a smaller airline as well.  Indeed, Continental Airlines is joining the Star Alliance (of which United is a founding member) and that may benefit United but if they think they will remain the shining star in the US market for that alliance, they are sadly mistaken.

Continental’s management team is stable, smart and agile in this market.  They are uniformly the choice of airline among business travelers (and that is who pays the bills) and possess a young, modern, harmonized fleet of aircraft that serve the routes efficiently.  Continental has hubs that will serve that alliance well in both NYC, Houston and Cleveland and offer Star Alliance members excellent codeshare options throughout the United States.

United Airlines has a fleet of 747s that are some of the oldest -400 models and by all passenger accounts they are in desperate need of refurbishment (unplanned for 3 years and not recognized for another 2 years while United showed its legs to potential suitors).  They possess a large 777 fleet which, on the surface, would imply some modernity there.  However, about half of that fleet are early model “A” market 777s powered by the less powerful and efficient Pratt & Whitney engines.  No lip gloss found there.  The other half are 777-200ER models that would at first glance appear to be more modern intercontinental aircraft.  They aren’t, really.  They’re what Boeing originally referred to as “B” market 777s and, once again, they are powered by the less reliable and efficient Pratt & Whitney PW4000 series engines.  I would point out that every other operator of this aircraft in the US is using the more powerful and efficient Rolls Royce Trent or GE90 engines (American Airlines, Delta Airlines and Continental Airlines.)

Their 767 fleet, a large one comprised of 767-300ER models, shows the same flaws as their 777 fleet.  While some were built as recently as 2001, they are all powered, once again, by the less fuel efficient Pratt & Whitney engines.  I’m sure a theme is beginning to reveal itself here. 

The same also remains true for their 757 fleet in that they are powered by the lesser Pratt & Whitney engines while other airlines are utilizing the real rocket of that type, the Rolls Royce RB211 powered 757 that, with winglets, is capable of ETOPS trans-atlantic operations.

Ignoring the soon to be gone 737 fleet (which is old and dingy but not powered by Pratt & Whitney for once), the remaining aircraft are various Airbus A320 types.  While they are not old by airline standard, most are more than 10 years old and some are approaching 15 year of age now. 

An old airplane is not an unsafe one but, in United’s case, it is an uncomfortable one.  While other airlines have paid attention to maintenance, comfort and even tuning engines, United has spent its time navigating bankruptcy and its management team has bet their golden parachutes on a merger.  With no other really suitable partners, they are now faced with operating an airline that by most standards, is not competitive.  What’s worse, they have lost 2 years time that could have been spent executing a service plan that might work.

If the cost pressures airlines are facing continue for another year, they (United) will be faced with another potential bankruptcy and, this time, it should be a liquidation.  There is no argument for this airline continuing its operations under the present regime nor is there an argument for it continuing to operate simply to support air transportation in the United States or abroad.  There are plenty of air carriers that can take up the slack and operate more coherently than United.   In fact, the only part of United ceasingly to exist that I find distasteful is that it potentially offers American Airlines an even greater lock on Chicago’s O’Hare airport.  Since I experience that kind of fortress here in the DFW area, I know just how expensive that can be for a consumer.

Successful airlines share a few qualities that I’ve noticed over the years.  They generally possess a young, fuel efficient and harmonized fleet.  They buy the airplanes configured for performance on a variety of routes.  They have leadership rather than just executive management.  They focus on a clean, comfortable flight experienced that is defined by the service provided by its employees.  Such an airline also carefully watches its money and nurtures its finances to avoid running cash short on the wrong day.  It takes care of its employees not by offering the best salaries but by offering a living wage, a hospitable workplace and with fair treatment in both hard times and good.

That is the antithesis of United Airlines and, so, they go on the Death Watch.

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In the 1970’s, Japan was experiencing fantastic economic growth and both ANA (All Nippon Airlines) and Japan Airlines needed more lift for their internal domestic routes.  They approached Boeing and inquired about using the 747 for these high cycle, short duration flights.  After investigating the possibilities, Boeing discovered that relatively minor changes (landing gear for instance), they could produce an aircraft that met their needs.

By eliminating 3 classes of service, galleys and other long range accomodations, the Boeing 747SR was born and able to carry as many as 525 passengers in this new domestic configuration.  Later, those same aircraft were replaced with 747-400 Domestics capable of carrying over 560 passengers.

That was the first 500+ passenger commercial aircraft but now the new Airbus A380 may be capable of carrying as many as 800 passengers in a similar domestic configuration.  There is some debate that such an airplane would be of use since the logistics of carrying an additional 300 passengers becomes almost unsolvable for existing airport configurations.  No doubt Airbus would happily build the airplane if there is, indeed, a market for it.

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In 1966, American Airlines released a set of specifications for a new kind of an airplane, an “air bus”.  This plane was to carry 250 to 300 people in a wide body configuration using two new, more powerful fan jets and it would be able to operate short to medium trunk routes such as Denver – Los Angeles or New York – Chicago.  Many enthusiasts will recognize that both McDonnel Douglas and Lockheed responded to this with the DC-10 and L1011 aircraft and both were to become rather legendary.

But while the DC-10 experienced great commercial success and the L1011 became the pilot’s airplane (reportedly one of the easiest planes to fly ever built), it was Airbus that got it right with their A300.  Both the DC-10 and L1011 were “compromise” aircraft in that they had 3, instead of two, engines to meet a specification that United Airlines issued:  the ability to take off with a full load from Denver’s mile high airport.

Airbus was originally formed between Aerospatiale and Deutch Aerospace with Spain’s CASA and England’s BAC joining later.  Their original aircraft utilized 2 GE CF-6 engines and had a range of about 1500 nm.  The A300 would later grow in both range and payload ultimately culminating in the A300-600R which was capable of carrying more than 260 passengers and a full cargo load for more than 4000 nautical miles.

At one point in the mid 1970’s, Airbus A300 sales were so bad that they had to just keep manufacturing airplanes in order to keep the assembly line open while betting that times would change and their aircraft might be adopted by others.  One landmark change in sales for Airbus was Eastern Airlines.  Frank Borman, President and CEO of Eastern, was searching for a replacement for Eastern’s Boeing 727-200 aircraft that would carry more passengers with better operating efficiencies on Eastern’s high density, East Coast routes. 

Borman, the former NASA astronaut, was a tough negotiator and ultimately got 4 Airbus A300s to try out for terms that amounted to the cost to operate the aircraft.  Eastern discovered that the aircraft was a huge moneymaker for those routes since it consumed 30% less fuel than the competing Lockheed L1011 that they also owned.

Ultimately, Boeing responded with the 767, also a twin engined aircraft, originally designed for much the same mission as the A300.  However, in many ways the two aircraft evolved to serve different missions.  The A300 thrived as a trunk airliner that could carry a massive amount of cargo easily (because its fuselage was designed to accomodate 2 side-by-side industry standard LD3 containers) and operate on high density routes with both speed and low seat costs.  While it was certified for ETOPS(Extended Twin Engine Operations over water or “Engines Turning Or Passengers Swimming) and was even ultimately used on over-water transatlantic routes, its specialty remained its original mission.

The Boeing 767 was built with a narrower fuselage that could not accomodate those same LD3 cargo containers two abreast but it did find its own mission in the transatlantic arena as it gained both range and capacity.  To use the similarly sized 767 on the same routes as the A300 was to set oneself up for failure.  The A300 was just too good at what it did.

American Airlines owns a number of A300 aircraft and while they were always used primarily for those same routes that Eastern once flew (NYC to Miami and the Caribbean), they also used the aircraft for transatlantic routes such as NYC to London. 

To date, there is no other better aircraft for that short to medium haul, high density mission that the A300 has served so perfectly.  Since many A300s are aging now, they are being withdrawn from service but there exists no true replacement for this marvel either.  Boeing 757/767 aircraft cannot carry either the same passengers or cargo efficiently and while the A330/340 aircraft use essentially the same fuselage, they only begin to show true efficiency on 4000nm or greater missions. 

In most markets where the A300 has been withdrawn, that capability has been replaced with greater frequency with airlines using B737-800/900 aircraft and A320/321 aircraft.  The Boeing 787 derivative 300 series does, at first glance, meet that mission profile carrying a great number of passengers (280 to 310) on routes as long as 3000 nm.  However, the only airlines to order the 787 are Japanese carriers ANA and Japan Airlines.   Many speculate that the 787-300, designed to replace the 767 and A300 on regional routes, will either have to grow in range (4500nm) or face being a Japan only aircraft.  Indeed, Boeing announced last year that the 787-300 won’t be certiied for use in the US although it could be done very easily should Boeing decide that there is a market in the US for such an airplane.

Sadly, Airbus does not have a new replacement on deck.  Their focus has been on the giant A380 and developing their new A350 series aircraft.  Sales of their A330 aircraft have been brisk still and Airbus will likely turn its focus to an A320 replacement aircraft once they have both time and resources. 

I have no doubt that Airbus will once more “get it right”.

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During the development of the 747, the US State Department asked Boeing to meet with a group of Soviet aircraft designers in a kind of technical exchange.  Otensibly it was a technical information exchange that Boeing agreed to in order to gain some knowledge about titanium.

Boeing was working on development of the 2707 SST at the same time as the 747 and had encountered quite a few problems in working with titanium which was to be used on many of the SST skin surfaces.  The original plans called for the 2707 SST to travel at nearly Mach 3 and at that speed aluminum could not be used since it grew too hot.  The Concorde was speed limited to Mach 2.2 for this very reason.

Since this was at the height of the Cold War (the 1960’s), Boeing was understandably reluctant to share information but thought that if they got enough data on titanium, it might be worth it.  One of the people sent to this discussion was Joe Sutter, the recognized “father” of the 747.  The meeting took place on neutral territory – a restaurant in Paris, France.

The instructions from Boeing to its engineers was to not share any information until they were satisfie with what the Soviets had to share.  Once the Boeing delegation was satisfied that all their questions about this heat resistant metal were answered, they instructed the engineers, including Joe Sutter, to answer their questions and to not hold back.

Surprisingly, the Soviets wanted to know why Boeing had used a “pod” type mounting of their engines on wings (with the exception of the 727) and Joe Sutter engaged them in an hour long discussion about drag, efficiency and balance.  The Soviets took copious notes on napkins and even the tablecloth.  When the discussion was over, the Soviets rolled up the tablecloth and departed with it and the napkins. 

The next Soviet airplane to be designed for commercial (and military) use by the Soviets was the Il-76 which had podded engines, a first for the Soviets.

Source material:  747 by Joe Sutter and Jay Spenser / Legend & Legacy by Robert Serling (Rod Serling’s brother)

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The Dallas Morning News reported that American Airlines will be both accelerating 737 deliveries as well as taking up new orders for the Boeing product.

As they replace MD-80 aircraft (The Boeing 737-800 is as much as 20% to 25% more fuel efficient than the equivalent MD-82/83), your chances of a middle seat go from 1 in 5 to 1 in 3.  That said, I still find the prospect of flying newer 737s more attractive than the alternative.

I remain completely puzzled that American Airlines and United Airlines have not ordered 787 aircraft.  The 787 fits into their fleet and routes very well and offers just that kind of gain in fuel and maintenance efficiency that both airlines desperately need.  Currently, only Northwest Airlines and Continental Airlines have the B787 on order among the legacy carriers although US Airways does have some A350 aircraft ordered.  Indeed, the A350 ordered by US Airways seems a bit too large for their needs even when the purchase is justified with the cross-cockpit qualifications that the Airbus product offers with US Airways existing A320/A330 products.

The new DeltaNorthWest Airlines will have Northwest’s B787 orders and will continue to take deliveries on the B777-200LR it already has ordered.  Those two aircraft come very close to each other in performance and seat-mile costs in the ultra-long haul market but the 777 has the advantage when it comes to cargo-carrying capabilities.

I cannot believe that for the foreseeable future, there will be no true 757/767 replacement and it is even more difficult to believe that airlines continue to make plans to retain most of those aircraft for the foreseeable future.  Both the 757 and 767 have AviationPartnersBoeing winglet programs in place now resulting in fuel efficiency gains as much as 6% on the 767 but they still remain older aircraft with ever increasing maintenance needs.

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I just saw THIS story on the Fort Worth Star Telegram’s Sky Talk Blog.  Now, why would *anyone* and in particular a Mexican airline (presumably populated by Spanish speaking employees) *ever* want to name an airline Nova Air? 

Because, pronounced that way, you are basically saying “No Go Air”.  No wonder they are withdrawing from Dallas.

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Go to this link.

GE is running a series of “ecomagination” commercials.  Find the one for the “Crane”.  There is something about that one that just entertains me to no end.

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The pilots of both Delta and NorthWest Airlines have approved a new joint collective bargaining agreement according to CNN.  This is likely the biggest obstacle, labor-wise, to this merger although I do think that there is potential trouble when it comes to the flight attendants of each airline.

You see, Delta’s flight attendants are not unionized but they do enjoy some of the best pay, schedules and working conditions of any of the legacy airlines.  NorthWest flight attendants, however, are highly unionized and have not traditionally been very management friendly.  No doubt, some of that enmity is earned.  From time to time, there is a movement to unionize Delta FAs but it always results in a no vote with only about 1/3 of their FA’s ever voting for a union.

In this new matchup, it is quite likely that Northwest flight attendants will move to organize under the new company structure immediately and they themeslves have a physical majority over the total number of Delta flight attendants.  See where this is going? 

Delta, particularly the current leadership, needs to go to great lengths to try to head off that move for two reasons:  First, they just gave a very handsome deal to the pilots and flight attendants are going to want to share in that wealth.  Second, they currently enjoy unprecedented flexibility that allows them to work much more closely with the flight attendants on things like scheduling and other work rules.  That flexibility rewards both parties presently but a pro-union/anti-management organization will cut deeply into Delta’s ability to maneuver in today’s business climate.

I don’t hold out much hope for Delta though.

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Airlines have begun making it possible to have a boarding pass using a 2D bar code to check in via PDA and/or Cell Phone.  Here is Continental Airlines’ website regarding this new innovation.

In principle, this is a great innovation for many travelers but it comes with some warnings not mentioned by any airlines at present.  If you are a true frequent flier then you are likely aware that sometimes your mileage isn’t credit from a flight now and then.  Airlines require that you send a copy of your boarding pass to prove the credit. 

Airlines such as Air Canada and Continental have not figured out how to give you credit when you have a PDA/Cell Phone boarding pass.  So, if you try out this option, buyer beware for now anyway.

Ultimately, this is a great innovation and choosing this option does not prohibit you from having a boarding pass printed at check-in (generally by swiping a credit card) so if your cellphone / PDA isn’t working, you’re still covered. 

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